Environmental Degradation and Economic Performance in Botswana: A Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Pollution Haven and Pollution Halo Hypotheses

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Botswana, a relatively understudied Southern African economy, by examining the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH), and Pollution Halo Hypothesis (PHLH). Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model—which allows for mixed integration orders and is suitable for small sample sizes—on data from 1991 to 2019, the study finds a U-shaped EKC, with a turning point at a GDP per capita of $3,479.38. Botswana, with a mean GDP per capita of approximately $5,500 and a 2019 value around $6,485, sees increased emissions. Short-term evidence supports the PHH, while long-term evidence supports the PHLH. This indicates that Botswana's current economic trajectory may be environmentally unsustainable without policy shifts. The study recommends investing in green technologies, strengthening environmental regulations, and promoting sustainable practices to mitigate the environmental impact of economic growth.